Dynamics of Investments in Commercial Real Estate – Comparative Characteristics of Investments in Shopping Centres and Retail Parks

Abstract

The commercial real estate market is a key segment of Bulgaria’s real estate market structure. Its sustainability and specificity make it an essential indicator of investment activity, consumer behaviour and regional economic development. This study presents the comparative characteristics of investments in retail parks and shopping centres as the two leading forms of commercial real estate in Bulgaria. The main objective is to analyse the differences in profitability, risk and sustainability between the two asset types, while accounting for the influence of changing market and consumer trends.

The research period covers key stages – from the post-pandemic recovery, during the period of increased interest rates in Bulgaria and Europe (2022 – 2024), to the subsequent normalisation. This analysis examines the dynamics of annual returns from investments in commercial real estate across Bulgaria and in the major cities – Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas – to identify trends, differences between markets and factors shaping profitability in the sector.

The profitability analysis, based on data for the period from 2021 to the third quarter of 2025 enables the identification of key market trends, risk levels, inter-regional differences, and external factors influencing investment interest.